News: Possible physician shortage of up to 124k doctors by 2034, projections find

The United States could see a physician shortage of between 37,800 and 124,000 doctors by the year 2034, according to the latest projections from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC).

The projections from the AAMC note that these shortfalls include both primary and specialty care, and that primary care will see a shortage of between 17,800 and 48,000 physicians between 2019 and 2034. Specialty care is projected to see a shortage of between 21,000 and 77,100 physicians within that same period.

Population growth, combined with a distribution weighted toward an aging population, continues to drive the demand for healthcare services despite the ongoing decrease in provider availability. According to the projections, the group of individuals 65 and older will increase by 42.4% by 2034. A demand for specialists that treat these older patients will increase over this timeline.

The increased 65-plus population, however, also includes current physicians who will leave the workforce as they reach retirement age. The projection shows that 40% of current physicians will be 65 years or older within the next 10 years. This means as the demand for healthcare and physicians continues to grow, the availability of active physicians shrinks.

Editor’s note: The AAMC projection can be found here. More ACDIS coverage of physician burnout can be found here.