News: Physician shortage projected to worsen through 2033

According to a new report commissioned by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC), physician demand will grow significantly higher than supply through the year 2033.

In 2019, the AAMC projected the shortfall of physicians at as many at 122,000 by 2032, HealthLeaders Media reported. The new report projects the shortfall at as many as 139,000 by 2033, with the projected shortfall ranging from 54,100 to 139,000. The projected shortfall of primary care physicians by 2033 ranges from 21,400 to 55,200.

The projected shortfall of non-primary care physicians ranges from 33,700 to 86,700. The physician shortage in surgical specialties ranges from 17,100 to 28,700. The physician shortage in medical specialties ranges from 9,300 to 17,800. The physician shortage in other specialties ranges from 17,100 to 41,900.

The demographic factors of population growth and aging are the primary drivers of the projected increasing demand for physicians, according to the report. Through the stated year, the United States’ population is expected to grow by 10.4%, rising from 327 million people in the year 2018 to nearly 361 million.

The population age under 18 is projected to grow 3.9%, calling for a growing demand in pediatric specialties, reported HealthLeaders Media. Staggeringly, the population of those aged 64 and older is projected to grow by 45.1%, leading to a higher demand for physician specialties that care for geriatric patients.

Retirements are expected to thin the ranks of physicians through 2033 as well.

“More than two of five currently active physicians will be 65 or older within the next decade,” the report says. “Shifts in retirement patterns over that time could have large implications for physician supply. Growing concerns about physician burnout, documented in the literature, suggest physicians will be more likely to accelerate than delay retirement.”

The COVID-19 pandemic may also impact the physician workforce, the report suggests. The pandemic is likely to affect the physician educational pipeline, such as cancelation of clinical rotations and other interruptions in education, as well as affecting physician regulations such as changes in licensure.

The pandemic may also have an effect on physician workforce exits, with early burnout-induced retirements potentially lowering the physician supply and the weakened economy potentially increasing the physician supply as doctors delay retirement.

Editor’s note: This article originally appeared in HealthLeaders Media. The full AAMC report can be found here. More ACDIS article on physician burnout can be found here and here. To read all of ACDIS’ coverage of the COVID-19 pandemic, click here.